Weekly Mortgage & Market Update
Week of October 5, 2026 in Review
Fed minutes, home prices, and jobless claims highlighted a quieter week, while European bond markets contributed to U.S. market volatility.
Fed Minutes: What They May Mean for Rates
The Fed's September minutes reinforced the importance of upcoming inflation and employment data. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last month to help control inflation. The Federal Funds Rate is the overnight borrowing rate for banks, not mortgage rates.
The Fed meets again October 27–28 and December 8–9. While “most participants” expected another hike by year-end, softer inflation data and calls for more information from Fed officials have significantly reduced expectations for an October increase.
Quick Market Hits
Home Prices: Cotality reported a 0.1% decline in August, with national home values still 1.8% higher than a year ago.
Unemployment: Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, while continuing claims remained near 1.72 million. Initial claims remain historically low, although freelance and gig work may mask some job losses. Declining continuing claims may also reflect expiring benefits rather than new employment.
Bond Market: A European bond selloff pushed global yields higher, contributing to U.S. volatility. Strong Treasury auction demand later helped bring the 10-year yield below a key technical level.
Family Hack of the Week
Celebrate National Lemon Bar Day on October 15 with these Lemon Bars from Food Network. Makes 20 squares or 40 triangles.
Preheat oven to 350°F. Cream ½ pound butter with ½ cup sugar. Add 2 cups flour and ⅛ teaspoon kosher salt. Press into a 9-by-13-by-2-inch pan with a ½-inch edge. Chill 15 minutes, then bake 15–20 minutes until lightly browned.
Whisk 6 extra-large eggs, 3 cups sugar, 2 tablespoons lemon zest (4–6 lemons), 1 cup fresh lemon juice, and 1 cup flour. Pour over the crust and bake 30–35 minutes until set. Cool completely and dust with confectioners' sugar.
What to Watch Ahead
Following Monday's Columbus Day market closures, Existing Home Sales arrive Tuesday, CPI inflation Wednesday, and PPI inflation, Retail Sales, and weekly Jobless Claims Thursday.
Source: MBSHighway
