October 29, 2026

Weekly Mortgage & Market Update

Week of October 19, 2026 in Review

Pending home sales and construction weakened in September, while safe-haven demand supported a rally in U.S. bonds.

Pending Home Sales Fall Sharply

Pending home sales, which track signed contracts, fell 7.3% in September and 11.3% annually, with all four U.S. regions declining in both periods.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the slowdown to rapidly rising mortgage rates, prompting some buyers and sellers to delay their plans.

Homebuilding Loses Momentum

Housing starts fell 5.2% in September to an annual pace of 1.22 million, below expectations. Home completions declined 14% annually to 1.19 million, while building permits slipped 0.2% to 1.4 million.

Builder confidence also weakened. The NAHB Housing Market Index fell three points to 29, its lowest level in 14 years. Readings below 50 indicate more builders view conditions as poor than good.

Higher mortgage rates, labor shortages, and rising energy and material costs continue to challenge builders. Limited inventory, homeowners holding onto low-rate mortgages, and lengthy construction timelines could help support home prices.

France Unrest and AI Debt Concerns Fuel Bond Rally

Unrest in France, involving more than 500,000 protesters, rioting, looting, and curfews, contributed to global uncertainty and increased demand for U.S. Treasuries as French bond yields rose.

Concerns over debt-funded AI infrastructure expansion at companies including CoreWeave, Nebius, and Oracle also pressured markets. Comments from Tesla and Meta about more disciplined spending raised concerns about future revenue growth and debt repayment if major customers reduce spending.

These developments contributed to a flight toward safer assets, supporting the U.S. bond rally.

By the Numbers: Jobless Claims

Initial unemployment claims remained low at approximately 194,000, although freelance and gig work may mask some job losses.

Continuing claims rose 25,000 to 1.73 million. While below recent highs, previous declines may partly reflect expiring benefits rather than new employment.

Family Hack of the Week

Celebrate National Pumpkin Day on October 26 with Spiced Pumpkin Raisin Cookies from Food Network. Makes about 2 dozen.

Preheat oven to 350°F. Combine 1 cup flour, ⅔ cup oats, 1 teaspoon cinnamon, ½ teaspoon each baking soda and salt, and ¼ teaspoon allspice.

Separately, mix ¾ cup raw sugar, ½ cup pumpkin puree, ⅓ cup vegetable oil, 1 tablespoon maple syrup, and 1 teaspoon vanilla. Add dry ingredients and ⅓ cup raisins.

Drop tablespoons of batter 1 inch apart onto parchment-lined baking sheets, flatten into 2-inch rounds, and sprinkle with raw sugar. Bake 17–20 minutes until lightly browned and firm. Cool on a rack.

What to Watch Ahead

Tuesday: Case-Shiller and FHFA Home Prices, New Home Sales, and the start of the Fed meeting.

Wednesday: Fed policy announcement and press conference, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged.

Thursday: PCE Inflation, first estimate of Q3 GDP, and weekly Jobless Claims.

Source: MBSHighway