Weekly Mortgage & Market Update
Home Sales Rise While Economic Growth Slows
Week of March 9, 2026 in Review
Inflation continues to cool, existing home sales moved higher, and economic growth was revised sharply lower. Here are the key developments from the week.
Annual Core Inflation Hits Nearly Five-Year Low
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February and 2.4% year over year, unchanged from the previous report. Core inflation — which excludes food and energy — increased 0.2% for the month and remained at 2.5% annually, its lowest level since March 2021.
Shelter remains a major component of inflation, accounting for roughly 36% of headline CPI and about 45% of core CPI. In February, shelter costs were relatively subdued, with rents rising just 0.1%, the smallest monthly increase in five years. That helped keep overall inflation pressures contained.
The government also released January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, which had been delayed due to last fall’s shutdown. Headline PCE rose 0.3% for the month, lowering the annual rate to 2.8% from 2.9% when it had been expected to remain unchanged. Core PCE increased 0.4%, bringing the annual core rate to 3.1% from 3%.
The Federal Reserve continues balancing inflation progress with signs that the labor market is softening. The Fed held its benchmark Federal Funds Rate steady in January after three quarter-point cuts late last year. While the Fed Funds Rate does not directly determine mortgage rates, it influences borrowing costs across the economy.
Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized there is “no risk-free path,” and both inflation and labor market trends will remain central to future policy decisions. Markets are also monitoring geopolitical developments and rising oil prices, which can add inflation pressure.
Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in February
After declining in January, existing home closings rose 1.7% in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
Housing inventory also increased 2.4% from January to 1.29 million homes, which is 4.9% higher than the same time last year.
Affordability has gradually improved, helping bring some buyers back into the market, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Inventory, however, is still expanding slowly. If demand strengthens faster than supply grows, home prices could face renewed upward pressure.
Housing Starts Rebound but All in Multi-Family
Housing starts unexpectedly increased, but the rise came entirely from multi-family construction.
Multi-family starts surged 30% in January after several weaker months. If sustained, additional apartment supply could help ease rental inflation.
Single-family starts declined.
Housing permits — a forward-looking indicator — fell for both single-family and multi-family units, signaling weaker construction activity ahead and less future supply, particularly in single-family housing.
At a Glance: GDP, Unemployment and Job Openings
The second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.7%, down sharply from 4.3% in Q3 and the initial Q4 estimate of 1.4%. The slowdown was largely tied to reduced government spending during the shutdown.
Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 213,000, while continuing claims dropped by 21,000 to 1.850 million. Persistently low initial claims may partly reflect displaced workers turning to gig or freelance work instead of filing for unemployment benefits.
Job openings rose to 6.95 million in January, up from 6.5 million in December and well above expectations. Even so, openings remain far below the 2022 peak of more than 12 million, and some remote job postings may be counted multiple times across states.
Home Life Tip of the Week
These Dijon Chicken Wings from Food Network are perfect for March Madness game days — or anytime you want a crowd-pleasing snack. Serves 6 to 8.
Position oven racks in the upper and lower thirds of the oven and preheat to 450°F. Lightly brush two large baking dishes with vegetable oil.
Pat 4 pounds of chicken wings dry and season with 2 teaspoons kosher salt and 1/2 teaspoon pepper. Arrange the wings in the baking dishes and bake 40–45 minutes, rotating pans halfway through, until golden and crisp.
While the wings bake, whisk together 3/4 cup Dijon mustard, 1/2 cup honey, 3 tablespoons mustard powder, and 1/2 teaspoon finely grated garlic.
Remove the wings from the oven, toss with the mustard mixture until evenly coated, and return to the oven for 3–5 minutes until glossy and glazed. Serve warm.
What to Look for This Week
The Federal Reserve begins its second meeting of the year on Tuesday, with its policy decision and press conference scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.
Upcoming data releases include:
Tuesday — Pending Home Sales
Wednesday — Wholesale inflation update
Thursday — New Home Sales and weekly jobless claims
Technical Picture
Mortgage bonds continued to move lower last week as rising oil prices influenced market direction. They ended the week just below their 200-day moving average, a level not breached since mid-2025.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield finished the week in the middle of a wide trading range between its 200-day moving average and resistance near 4.3%.
Source: MBSHighway
