Weekly Mortgage & Market Update
Cooling Hiring Trends Come Into Focus
Week of March 23, 2026 in Review
It was a quieter week for economic data, with markets largely reacting to geopolitical uncertainty around the conflict in Iran and volatility in oil prices. At the same time, new labor market data continues to point toward slowing hiring trends.
ADP Signals Sluggish Job Growth
ADP’s weekly employment report, which tracks payroll data in near real time, showed U.S. private employers added an average of 10,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending March 7. That’s only a slight increase from the prior report’s 9,000 weekly average.
At that pace, private employers added roughly 40,000 jobs over the past month, a relatively weak showing. Combined with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ February report showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, attention now turns to the government’s March Jobs Report, scheduled for April 3, to determine whether hiring stabilizes or continues to slow.
Jobless Claims Hint at Growing Gig Economy
Initial jobless claims rose slightly by 5,000 to 210,000 in the latest week, remaining low by historical standards. Continuing claims, which track those receiving benefits beyond the first week, fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million.
Low initial claims may not tell the full story. The rise of gig and contract work continues to change how workers respond to job loss, with many opting for flexible income sources instead of filing for unemployment, particularly when benefits do not fully cover living expenses.
At the same time, continuing claims remain elevated, suggesting that those who are unemployed are taking longer to secure new full-time roles.
Home Life Tip of the Week
Celebrate National Chocolate Mousse Day on April 3 with this rich chocolate mousse from Food Network. Serves 4 to 6.
Gently melt 5 1/4 ounces of chopped bittersweet chocolate in a double boiler over low heat, stirring until smooth, then let cool.
In a chilled bowl, whip 14 ounces of cold heavy cream to soft peaks and set aside. In a separate bowl, beat 3 egg whites to soft peaks, gradually adding 1 ounce of sugar until firm peaks form.
Fold the egg whites into the melted chocolate, then gently fold in the whipped cream until smooth. Refrigerate for about one hour until set. Serve topped with whipped cream and shaved chocolate.
What to Look for This Week
Tuesday: Home price data from Case-Shiller and FHFA, along with job openings
Wednesday: Retail sales and private payroll data
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims
Friday: Jobs report including non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds closed back above 99.78 on Friday and continue to trade in a tight range, with resistance near 99.99.
The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week around 4.43% after approaching resistance at 4.491%, keeping markets sensitive to incoming data and geopolitical developments.
Source: MBSHighway
