Weekly Mortgage & Market Update

Week of June 1, 2026 in Review

Labor market data continues to paint a resilient picture, while home price forecasts highlight the long-term opportunity in homeownership.

Jobs Report Surprises to the Upside

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report showed stronger-than-expected job growth in May. The economy added 172,000 jobs, well above forecasts of approximately 85,000. Job gains for March and April were also revised higher by a combined 93,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

The three-month average of job growth now stands at 188,000, a stronger pace than recent months and a positive sign for the labor market.

Some underlying details were softer. Full-time employment declined by 79,000 jobs, while part-time employment increased by 266,000. Long-term unemployment—workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more—rose to its highest level since 2021, suggesting it may be taking longer for some people to find new jobs.

ADP Report Signals Broader Hiring Gains

Private payroll data from ADP echoed the government report, showing employers added 122,000 jobs in May, slightly above forecasts. Hiring occurred across businesses of all sizes, with small businesses leading the gains. Eight of ten major sectors reported job growth.

ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson noted that hiring was "more broad-based in May than we've seen in the last few years," indicating continued labor market resilience heading into the summer hiring season.

Recent trends show job growth averaging 96,000 per month over the last three months, up from 67,000 over the last six months. However, much of the growth continues to come from Education and Health Services, sectors that tend to be less sensitive to economic conditions and more influenced by long-term demographic trends.

Workers who changed jobs saw wages increase 6.5% over the past year, compared to 4.4% for those who remained with their current employer. While job changers continue to earn a pay premium, the gap has narrowed from recent years.

Additional Labor Data Supports a Resilient Outlook

Additional labor market reports also showed encouraging signs.

Revelio Labs reported 123,700 job gains in May, nearly double April's total and the strongest monthly increase since last July.

Job openings rose from 6.9 million in March to 7.6 million in April, although the actual number may be somewhat lower because some remote positions are posted in multiple locations.

Initial unemployment claims remain relatively low at approximately 225,000. However, some displaced workers may be choosing gig or freelance work instead of filing unemployment claims.

Continuing unemployment claims remained elevated at 1.78 million, indicating many job seekers are still taking longer to find employment.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported approximately 97,000 job cuts in May, up from about 83,000 in April. AI-related restructuring was cited as the leading cause of layoffs for the third consecutive month. At the same time, announced hiring plans nearly doubled from April to approximately 19,500.

Overall, while some indicators continue to show labor market softness, recent data suggests conditions are stabilizing and remain resilient after several months of slower job growth.

Homeownership's Long-Term Value on Display

According to Cotality's latest Home Price Insights report, home prices increased 0.4% from March to April and were 0.3% higher than a year ago.

Cotality expects appreciation to strengthen over the next year and now forecasts home prices will rise 5.3% over the next 12 months, up from its previous forecast of 5.1%.

For perspective, a home valued at $500,000 that appreciates 5% would gain approximately $25,000 in value over one year, highlighting the long-term wealth-building potential of homeownership.

Family Hack of the Week

Celebrate National Peanut Butter Cookie Day on June 12 with these Peanut Butter Chocolate Chip Cookies from Food Network. This recipe makes approximately 3 dozen soft, chewy cookies.

Whisk together 1½ cups all-purpose flour, 1½ teaspoons salt, ½ teaspoon baking powder, and ½ teaspoon baking soda.

In a separate bowl, beat together 1½ sticks melted unsalted butter, 1 cup packed dark brown sugar, and ¼ cup granulated sugar. Mix in 1 cup creamy peanut butter and 1½ teaspoons vanilla extract. Add 2 room-temperature eggs one at a time and beat until thick and creamy.

Stir in the dry ingredients, then add one 12-ounce bag of semi-sweet chocolate chips. Cover and let the dough rest at room temperature for 1 hour.

Preheat the oven to 375°F and line baking sheets with parchment paper. Scoop heaping 2-tablespoon portions of dough onto baking sheets, spacing them about 2 inches apart.

Bake for 10–12 minutes, rotating pans halfway through, until lightly golden around the edges but still soft in the center. Cool on the baking sheets for 5 minutes before transferring to a wire rack.

What to Look for This Week

Existing Home Sales data is scheduled for Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Weekly jobless claims will also be released Thursday, providing another update on labor market conditions.

SOURCE: MBSHighway