July 31, 2026

Weekly Mortgage & Market Update

Week of July 20, 2026 in Review

New home sales exceeded expectations in June, home prices continued to appreciate, and geopolitical tensions kept oil markets volatile.

June New Home Sales Top Expectations

After two consecutive monthly declines, new home sales rebounded in June, rising 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 homes. Sales came in above expectations, and May's total was also revised higher. Compared to a year ago, however, sales were down 5.6%.

Sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, while the West posted a 22% monthly decline. Because this report measures signed purchase contracts, it reflects buyers who were shopping during June.

Some headlines focused on a 3.3% month-over-month decline in the median new home price, but the median can shift based on the mix of homes sold. In June, a larger share of sales occurred below $300,000, pulling the median price lower. Broader market data and forecasts continue to point to steady home price appreciation.

Home Equity Remains a Key Wealth Building Tool

According to ICE's latest Home Price Index, U.S. home prices increased 0.26% from June to July, bringing year-over-year appreciation to 1.7%.

Since the beginning of the year, home prices have been rising at an annualized pace of about 3%, helping homeowners build equity over time. While appreciation varies by market, a $500,000 home appreciating 3% would gain approximately $15,000 in value over one year.

Geopolitical Risks Keep Oil Markets on Edge

On July 18, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil per day were still moving through the Middle East—about half through the Strait of Hormuz and the remainder through alternative shipping routes, including Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline to the Red Sea.

Concerns increased after reports that the Iran-backed Houthi group proposed a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia, raising questions about the security of those alternative routes. The possibility of additional supply disruptions contributed to higher oil prices and renewed market volatility.

As geopolitical events continue to unfold, oil markets are likely to remain sensitive to developments affecting global supply and transportation.

Low Jobless Claims May Not Tell the Full Story

Initial unemployment claims fell to 187,000, the lowest level since 1969, after holding between 209,000 and 217,000 over the previous month. Continuing unemployment claims remained elevated and relatively steady at 1.8 million.

The sharp decline in new claims may not fully reflect labor market conditions. In late June, Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling directed states to strengthen identity and eligibility verification before distributing unemployment benefits in response to fraud during COVID, which may have delayed or reduced some claims.

In addition, more displaced workers may be turning to freelance, contract, or gig work instead of filing for unemployment benefits. At the same time, elevated continuing claims suggest many unemployed workers are taking longer to find their next job.

Family Hack of the Week

Celebrate National Milk Chocolate Day on July 28 with this rich Milk Chocolate Mousse from Food Network. The recipe yields four servings.

Melt 8 ounces milk chocolate with 4 tablespoons butter in a double boiler and let cool slightly. Whip 2 cups heavy cream until soft, add ¼ cup sugar, then continue beating until stiff peaks form.

Whisk together 4 egg yolks and 1 teaspoon vanilla. Slowly whisk in a small amount of the melted chocolate to temper the eggs, then stir the mixture back into the remaining chocolate.

Fold three-quarters of the whipped cream into the chocolate mixture, spoon into serving dishes, and refrigerate for at least 1 hour. Top with the remaining whipped cream and grated chocolate before serving.

What to Watch Ahead

The economic calendar becomes much busier this week.

Tuesday brings home price data from Case-Shiller and the FHFA, while the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting.

The Fed announces its latest interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday features several key reports, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, the first estimate of second-quarter GDP, and weekly jobless claims.

Source: MBSHighway