Weekly Mortgage & Market Update

Week of June 29, 2026 in Review

June hiring came in below expectations, while home prices continued to move higher with another month of solid gains.

June Jobs Report Falls Short of Forecasts

The economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations for 110,000. Payroll gains for April and May were also revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate edged down from 4.3% to 4.2%.

The underlying details were softer as well. Full-time employment declined by 514,000 jobs, while part-time employment fell by 53,000.

Much of the recent job growth has been concentrated in education and healthcare, sectors that tend to be supported by long-term demographic trends rather than broad-based economic strength.

While the lower unemployment rate appears encouraging, it was largely driven by a 720,000 decline in the labor force.

ADP Report Shows Modest Private-Sector Hiring

According to ADP, private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, below expectations for roughly 110,000. Hiring increased across businesses of all sizes, with small businesses leading the way.

About half of all new jobs came from the education and health services sector, while hiring across most other industries remained more modest.

Workers who changed jobs saw wages increase 6.6% over the past year, compared with 4.4% for those who stayed with their employer. While job switchers continue to receive larger raises, the gap has narrowed considerably from recent years, suggesting the labor market has become less competitive.

Other Labor Market Data Paints a Mixed Picture

Job openings rose to 7.6 million in May, exceeding expectations for 7.3 million. However, the actual number of available jobs may be somewhat lower because some remote positions are posted in multiple locations.

Hiring also received a boost from temporary World Cup demand, with leisure and hospitality job openings increasing by 95,000 and accommodation and food services adding 62,000 openings.

Initial unemployment claims remain relatively low at approximately 215,000. However, some displaced workers may be choosing gig or freelance work instead of filing for unemployment benefits.

Continuing unemployment claims remained elevated at 1.81 million, suggesting many unemployed workers are taking longer to find new jobs.

Separately, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported approximately 46,000 job cuts in June, down from about 97,000 in May. AI-related restructuring remained the leading cause of layoffs for the fourth consecutive month, while announced hiring plans year-to-date are up about 10% from 2025.

Overall, labor market data continues to send mixed signals, with some indicators remaining resilient while others point to softer hiring conditions.

Home Prices Continue to Build on Recent Gains

U.S. home prices increased 0.8% from March to April, following a 0.7% gain in March, for a combined increase of 1.5% over the two-month period. After seasonal adjustments, prices were essentially flat, but home values remain 0.8% higher than a year ago.

FHFA data told a similar story. While seasonally adjusted prices were mostly flat in April, actual home prices increased 0.7% in April, 1.0% in March, and 0.9% in February—a combined gain of 2.6% over the three-month period. Home prices also rose 2.0% from a year earlier for homes backed by conventional loans.

Although seasonal adjustments can make appreciation appear more modest, national home values have continued to trend higher this spring. For perspective, a $500,000 home appreciating 4% would gain approximately $20,000 in value over one year.

Family Hack of the Week

These Apple Turnovers from Allrecipes are made with cinnamon-spiced apples and flaky puff pastry. The recipe yields 8 servings.

Peel, core, and slice 4 Granny Smith apples, then soak them in 4 cups of water mixed with 2 tablespoons lemon juice. Melt 2 tablespoons butter in a skillet, drain the apples, and cook for 2 minutes. Stir in 1 cup brown sugar and 1 teaspoon cinnamon and cook for 2 minutes more.

Mix 1 tablespoon cornstarch with 1 tablespoon water and stir into the apples until thickened. Cool slightly.

Preheat the oven to 400°F. Cut 2 sheets of puff pastry into 8 squares, fill each with the apple mixture, fold into triangles, seal the edges, and bake for approximately 25 minutes until golden brown.

Whisk together 1 cup confectioners' sugar, 1 tablespoon milk, and 1 teaspoon vanilla, then drizzle the glaze over the cooled turnovers before serving.

What to Watch Ahead

It's a relatively quiet week for economic data. Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes may provide additional insight into the Fed's outlook and could move markets.

Thursday brings Existing Home Sales and the latest weekly jobless claims report.

Souce: MBSHighway