August 15, 2026

Weekly Mortgage & Market Update

Week of August 3, 2026 in Review

July hiring came in weaker than expected, with several reports pointing to a slowing labor market.

July Jobs Report Shows Unexpected Job Losses

The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, compared with forecasts for an 80,000 gain. Payrolls for May and June were also revised lower by a combined 103,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate edged down from 4.2% to 4.1%.

The underlying data also pointed to weakness. Full-time employment declined by 106,000, while part-time employment increased by 138,000. Job losses included leisure and hospitality (-40,000), retail trade (-19,000), and local government education (-50,000).

Wage growth was also softer than expected, with average hourly and weekly earnings showing limited gains. While the lower unemployment rate may appear encouraging, it was largely driven by a 264,000 decline in the labor force, which has fallen by nearly one million people since May.

Private Sector Hiring Slows in July

ADP reported that private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, well below expectations of approximately 70,000. Small businesses led hiring, while larger employers added workers at a slower pace.

Workers who changed jobs received an average 7% pay increase over the past year, compared with 4.4% for those who remained with their current employer.

Hiring was narrowly concentrated, with education and health services accounting for much of the job growth. Because these sectors are supported by long-term demographic trends, the gains don't necessarily indicate broad strength across the economy.

More Signs the Labor Market is Cooling

Job openings declined to 7.36 million in June, slightly below expectations of 7.4 million. The actual number of available jobs may be lower, as some remote positions are posted in multiple locations.

Initial unemployment claims remained relatively low at approximately 199,000, suggesting layoffs remain limited. However, some displaced workers may be turning to gig or freelance work rather than filing for unemployment benefits.

Continuing unemployment claims remained elevated at 1.8 million, indicating many unemployed workers are taking longer to find new jobs.

The ISM Services Index also showed its employment component falling below 50, signaling contraction, while ZipRecruiter described the labor market as subdued in its second-quarter earnings report.

Attention now turns to the August jobs report, due in early September. It will be one of the final major labor market reports before the Fed's September 15–16 meeting and an important factor in its next interest rate decision.

Family Hack of the Week

Celebrate National Raspberry Tart Day on August 11 with these Mini Fruit Tarts from Allrecipes. This recipe yields 14 tarts.

Combine 1¼ cups flour, 1 tablespoon sugar, and ¼ teaspoon salt. Cut in 1 stick cold unsalted butter until the mixture resembles coarse crumbs, then add 5 tablespoons very cold water and mix until the dough comes together.

For the filling, combine 2 cups fresh raspberries, 2 cups blackberries, ½ cup sugar, 2 tablespoons flour, and a pinch of salt.

Lightly grease 14 muffin cups and press the dough along the bottoms and sides, about ⅛ to ¼-inch thick. Divide the berry filling among the shells.

Preheat the oven to 425°F with the rack in the lower third. Refrigerate the tarts for 15 minutes, then bake for 15 to 18 minutes until the crust is golden brown and the filling is bubbling. Serve warm or with your favorite ice cream.

What to Watch Ahead

Existing Home Sales kick off the week's economic reports on Tuesday.

Inflation takes center stage with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.

Friday brings Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending.

Source: MBSHighway