Weekly Mortgage Market Update

Government Reopens, Fed Awaits Key Data
Week of November 10, 2025 in review

Now that the government has officially reopened, we’re finally going to see the economic data we’ve been waiting on. As we head into the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting, this incoming data matters more than ever.

Government Reopens: What Happens Next

The shutdown halted essential releases on inflation, jobs, retail sales, new home sales, and GDP. These reports are more than just headlines—they influence mortgage rate movement and the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently reminded the public that there is “no risk-free path” ahead and made it clear that a December rate cut is “far from guaranteed.” That means the next round of data could directly shape what happens with rates.

ADP Shows Late-October Job Weakness

ADP’s monthly report showed 42,000 private-sector jobs added in October. That reflects modest job growth early in the month.

Their weekly data—based on real-time payroll information—paints a different picture. It shows that U.S. companies cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25. This suggests a noticeable late month slowdown in the labor market and becomes an important early indicator while we wait for the delayed government data.

Home Values Regain Strength

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), a major financial data and housing analytics provider, reported renewed momentum in home values:

• Home prices rose 0.15% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), the strongest monthly gain since March

• Annual appreciation climbed to 0.9%, ending nine months of slowing growth

Cotality, another trusted analytics firm, now expects 4.1% home price appreciation over the next year, up from the prior forecast of 3.9%. For perspective, a $500,000 home appreciating at 4% adds $20,000 in equity in a single year—quietly and consistently.

Retail Sales Rebound in October

According to the National Retail Federation, consumer spending improved after September’s dip:

• Seven of nine retail categories posted monthly gains

• Most categories also grew year-over-year

• Digital products, clothing, and sporting goods led the improvement

With government releases delayed, this private-sector data has been a key indicator of consumer health—a major factor the Fed will consider ahead of its December meeting.

What to Watch This Week

Here’s what we are monitoring closely as economic reporting resumes:

• Tuesday: Homebuilder Confidence

• Thursday: Existing Home Sales

• Thursday: Delayed September Jobs Report (BLS)

These reports can move mortgage rates and will help the market reestablish direction after several weeks of limited information.

Technical Picture

Mortgage bonds traded last week between support at 100.71 and the 50-day moving average. The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.126%, with the next resistance level near 4.163%. This tells us the market has been waiting for clarity—and that clarity is coming as the delayed data begins to flow.

Recipe of the Week: Cranberry Nut Loaf

This is an easy, delicious fall recipe that fills your kitchen with the best kind of warmth.

Preheat your oven to 350°F and grease a 9x5-inch loaf pan.

In a large bowl, combine 2 cups all-purpose flour, 3/4 cup sugar, 1 1/2 teaspoons baking powder, 3/4 teaspoon salt, 1/2 teaspoon baking soda, 1 cup chopped cranberries, and 1/2 cup chopped walnuts.

In a separate bowl, whisk together 3/4 cup orange juice, 1 egg, 2 tablespoons vegetable oil, and 1 tablespoon orange zest.

Combine the wet and dry ingredients and mix just until combined. Transfer to the pan and bake for about 50 minutes, or until a toothpick comes out clean. Let the loaf cool in the pan for 10 minutes, then move it to a wire rack to finish cooling. It’s simple, seasonal, and perfect with morning coffee.

Source: MBA Highway