October 02, 2026

Weekly Mortgage & Market Update

Week of September 21, 2026 in Review

Fed comments and geopolitical developments fueled market volatility, while new home sales reached their highest pace of the year.

Fed Comments, Geopolitical News Add to Market Volatility

Fed Governor Michael Barr said further rate increases may be needed to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, while New York Fed President John Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also indicated another hike may be appropriate.

The comments followed the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16. The Federal Funds Rate is the overnight borrowing rate for banks and is not the same as mortgage rates.

U.S.-Iran developments also added volatility as markets monitored the conflict, negotiations, and potential impact on oil prices.

The Fed has two meetings remaining this year—October 27–28 and December 8–9—and markets increased the odds of another October rate hike.

New Home Sales Strengthen in August

New home sales rose 6.4% in August to an annual rate of 684,000—the highest pace of the year and above expectations. July was revised higher by 36,000 to 643,000. Sales were 2% lower than a year ago.

The median new home price fell 5.8% annually, but sales below $500,000 increased notably, pulling the median lower. A lower median price does not necessarily mean home values are falling, and broader data continues to show nationwide appreciation.

Jobless Claims at a Glance

Initial unemployment claims fell to 197,000, while continuing claims remained near 1.72 million.

Initial claims remain historically low, though some workers may turn to freelance or gig work instead of filing. Continuing claims have fallen from recent highs, but some of that decline may reflect expiring benefits.

Family Hack of the Week

Celebrate National Pancake Day on September 26 with Apple Cinnamon Pancakes. Makes about 16.

Combine 1½ cups flour, 2 teaspoons baking powder, ¾ teaspoon cinnamon, and ¼ teaspoon salt. Separately, whisk 1 cup milk, ¼ cup brown sugar, 1 teaspoon vanilla, 2 eggs, and 2 tablespoons melted butter. Add the dry ingredients and 1 grated small red-skinned apple.

Cook 2 tablespoons batter per pancake for about 3 minutes, flip and cook 1 minute more. Keep warm in a 250°F oven and serve with butter and maple syrup.

What to Watch Ahead

Tuesday: Case-Shiller and FHFA home prices and Job Openings.
Wednesday: Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and private-sector payrolls.
Thursday: Jobless Claims.
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

Source: MBSHighway