Weekly Mortgage & Market Update

Week of September 28, 2026 in Review

Inflation came in below expectations, hiring weakened, and home prices continued to appreciate.

Inflation Readings Below Expectations

*Personal Consumption Expenditures August 2026*

Headline PCE rose 0.3% in August, with annual inflation at 3.4% versus 3.7% expected. Core PCE rose 0.2%, with annual inflation at 3% versus 3.3% expected. The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean measured underlying inflation at 2.2%, closer to the Fed’s 2% target.

The Fed raised rates 25 basis points in September. Two meetings remain—October 27–28 and December 8–9—with upcoming inflation data key to future decisions.

September Jobs Report Comes in Soft

The economy added 29,000 jobs in September versus roughly 90,000 expected. Unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.

July was revised down 31,000 to a net loss of 10,000 jobs. August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000. Combined revisions reduced previously reported growth by 60,000.

Expectations for an October Fed rate hike have fallen significantly.

Private Sector Hiring Rebounds

*Monthly Change in US Private Employment September 2026*

ADP reported 90,000 private-sector jobs added versus approximately 70,000 expected—the first acceleration since May after a three-month slowdown.

Annual pay rose 7.3% for job switchers versus 4.4% for those who stayed. Education and health services accounted for much of the growth.

Additional Labor and Economic Highlights

Job openings totaled 7.08 million versus 7.2 million expected. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 and continuing claims to 1.7 million.

September announced hiring plans totaled 90,787—the lowest September since 2011.

Q2 GDP was revised from 1.5% to 2.2%, while Q1 was revised from 2.1% to 2.5%. Consumer spending, investment—including AI data centers—and exports supported growth, while higher imports weighed on GDP.

National Home Values Keep Rising

*Case-Shiller Home Price Index July 2026*

Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.1% in July, bringing gains since March to nearly 3% and annual appreciation to 1.9%.

FHFA reported prices rose 0.3% in July, with conventionally financed homes up 2.6% annually.

At 3% appreciation, a $500,000 home would gain approximately $15,000 in value in one year.

Family Hack of the Week

Chocolate Chip Oatmeal Cookies — Makes about 3 dozen.

Combine 1 cup flour, ½ teaspoon each baking powder and baking soda, ¼ teaspoon salt, 2 cups oats, and ½ cup pecans.

Beat 1 stick butter with ½ cup each brown and granulated sugar. Add 1 egg, ¼ cup maple syrup, and ½ teaspoon vanilla. Add dry ingredients and ¾ cup chocolate chips.

Form walnut-sized balls, space 3 inches apart, flatten, and bake at 350°F for about 9 minutes, rotating once.

What to Watch Ahead

Wednesday: Fed meeting minutes.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims.

Source: MBSHighway