September 19, 2026

Weekly Mortgage & Market Update

Week of September 7, 2026 in Review

Inflation increased in August, keeping a potential Fed rate hike in play, while existing home sales declined for the third straight month.

Inflation Data Keeps Fed Rate Hike in Play

Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August, driven largely by higher gas and energy costs, while annual inflation held at 3.4%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month but declined to 2.4% annually—its lowest level in more than five years.

Wholesale inflation moved higher, with headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rising from 4.8% to 5.4% annually, slightly above expectations, driven partly by higher energy prices, particularly diesel. Core PPI increased from 4.3% to 4.6%.

While Core CPI is improving, it remains above the Fed's 2% target. Hotter monthly inflation and uncertainty around energy prices could increase the likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed's September 16 meeting. Current market expectations put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike above 80%.

The Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, but its decisions influence borrowing costs throughout the economy.

Existing Home Sales Ease Again

Existing home sales fell 2% from July to August, the third consecutive monthly decline, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million homes. Sales were 1.2% below August 2025 but remain up 1.6% so far this year.

Inventory increased 3.2% from July and 5.9% from a year ago.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that mortgage rates and home sales typically move in opposite directions, making the slowdown unsurprising given higher rates.

Quick Look: Unemployment Claims

Initial unemployment claims remain relatively low at approximately 206,000, though some displaced workers may be turning to freelance or gig work rather than filing for benefits.

Continuing claims remain elevated at 1.77 million, suggesting some job seekers are taking longer to find new employment.

Family Hack of the Week

Celebrate National Blackberry Day on September 12 with this easy Blackberry Crumble. Makes 8 servings.

Preheat the oven to 375°F. Place 4 cups fresh blackberries in a pie dish and sprinkle with 2 tablespoons sugar.

Combine 1 cup flour, ½ cup brown sugar, 6 tablespoons cubed unsalted butter, and 1 tablespoon cinnamon until crumbly. Spread over the berries and top with ¾ cup chopped walnuts.

Bake for 25 to 30 minutes until golden and bubbly. Serve warm with vanilla ice cream.

What to Watch Ahead

The Fed meeting begins Tuesday, with its policy announcement and press conference Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday also brings Home Builder Confidence and Retail Sales, followed Thursday by New Home Construction, Pending Home Sales, and weekly Jobless Claims.

Source: MBSHighway